The 2026 sentencing changes: will they get out earlier?

Everyone is talking about the new rules and the 33% figure. Here is the honest picture: what is changing, what has not started yet, and what it might mean for your loved one.

These rules cover England and Wales. In Scotland or Northern Ireland? Start here.

The key fact: it has not started yet As of 15 July 2026, the new one third release rules are not in force. They are expected in Autumn 2026. Until then, the current rules apply, and most normal sentences are released at 40%.

What is changing

The Sentencing Act 2026 brings in a new way of releasing people called earned progression. When it starts:

The question everyone is asking

Will it apply to people already sentenced? This is the part that is not yet confirmed, and it matters most to families whose loved one is already inside. Please do not assume an earlier date until:

  1. the changes have actually started, and
  2. the prison has issued a new sentence calculation.

The date on their sentence calculation sheet, from the prison's Offender Management Unit, is the official one. Anything about the new rules is a possibility until then.

See both dates

Our release date calculator is built for exactly this moment. Put in the sentence and it shows the release date under today's rules and what the new one third rules would mean, side by side, so you can see the difference without guessing.

We will tell you the day it changes

This is the single biggest change to prison release in years, and the start date is a moving target. We update this site the day it commences. If you want to know as soon as it happens, leave your email below.

Common questions

Are the new one third release rules in force yet?

Not yet. The Sentencing Act 2026 is law, but the earned progression release changes have not started. The government has said they are expected in Autumn 2026. Until they start, the current rules apply: most normal sentences are released at 40%.

What is changing?

When the changes start, most people on normal fixed sentences will be released at one third of the sentence instead of 40%, as long as they have not been given extra days for breaking prison rules. People currently released at two thirds move to half. It is called earned progression because good behaviour brings release forward and bad behaviour pushes it back.

Will it apply to people already in prison?

This is the big unanswered question for most families. The government has not yet confirmed exactly how the change applies to people already sentenced. Do not assume an earlier date until it is confirmed and the prison recalculates. The prison's Offender Management Unit does the official date.

My relative's paperwork shows one date but I read about a new date. Which is right?

The date on their sentence calculation sheet from the prison is the official one for the rules in force now. Anything about the new rules is a future possibility until the changes start and the prison issues a new calculation. Use our release date calculator to see both the current date and what the new rules would mean.

See both dates on the calculator

Does this affect Scotland or Northern Ireland?

No. This is an England and Wales change. Scotland and Northern Ireland have their own separate rules. Scotland made its own change to release points in 2026.

Is HDC (the tag) affected?

Yes. When the earned progression rules start, the tag scheme (HDC) is being scrapped for adults on normal fixed sentences, because the earlier automatic release replaces it.

Where this comes from The official source is the GOV.UK Sentencing Bill progression measures factsheet. For a family-friendly summary, the Prison Reform Trust keeps its information sheets up to date.

Checked: 15 July 2026 We update this page when the rules change.